Monday, January 7, 2008

Caucuses, like woah.

Iowa.
What an incredibly pleasant surprise to have Obama swipe this first and very important caucus. Especially considering that this was one of the caucuses he was not favored to win in initially. I think, by winning this hurdle, a base of largely conservative faith driven constituents, Obama has proven he has mass appeal. My prediction, and hope, is that he will sweep New Hampshire riding the momentum of this very pivotal win.
Iowa was make or break for Edwards. He broke. His real base was the conservative religious democrats, and by not even carrying those, I think he's officially cashed in his political chips.
As for our favorite little lady in the mix, Hilary's still got a chance if she can carry a few of the upcoming caucuses. My guess is that she's counting on Super Tuesday being her money shot. I think she can still lose New Hampshire, and if she manages to carry the big one, still be in serious contention for the nomination.
If you didn't see Huckabee winning this one, a mile off, you haven't been paying attention. His little rush of support recently, was just the wave he needed to boost him with the faith based conservatives in Iowa. Had he not carried these guys, he'd have been done for, because it's only going to be an uphill battle for him from here on out. Huckabee WILL be the big loser in New Hampshire, as the "live free or die" republicans there won't look too kindly on the big government leanings of the reverend. My prediction is that Romney carries NH; with his biggest competition being McCain. It'll all depend on if McCain can get the young people out to the polls, if he manages that, he might manage the win. If not, Romney's the man.
Giulani is clearly banking on winning the big ones. Namely Florida, the first of the monster electoral college states. But he will HAVE to carry it (Florida), New York (given), AND California to even have a prayer against Romney when it comes down to the final nomination. And thats a lot of "if".
Can't wait for NH returns tomorrow night. Keep the TV's and radio's on people, big decisions are going down.


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